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Analysis finds US federal energy rollbacks could add over 9 billion tons of emissions by 2040

By Eve

An analysis by Energy Innovation projects that federal energy policy rollbacks could produce over 9 billion additional tons of heat-trapping pollution through 2040, alongside higher household energy costs and tens of thousands of additional early deaths from poorer air quality. The coverage, published by The Cool Down, draws on a YouTube video by Dave Borlace of Just Have a Think, citing research from Energy Innovation, Rhodium Group and Wood Mackenzie. It notes that on 12 February 2026 the administration rescinded the EPA's 2009 endangerment finding, the legal basis for federal greenhouse gas rules on new vehicles, and also eliminated those vehicle standards.

Why it matters

Removing federal vehicle emissions standards and shrinking clean-energy incentives weakens one of the policy drivers behind EV adoption, which feeds directly into charging demand forecasts and site business cases. Procurement teams and CPOs should stress test project pipelines against slower federal support, while recognising that the source describes the underlying technology economics as still compelling.

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Original title
“Trump's US energy rollbacks could add over 9 billion tons of emissions by 2040, analysis finds”
Published
5 November 2026

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